I'm only going to comment on a few categories because I don't really know how to judge all of the categories.
Alright, this one might make me angry. First of all, I really really really really really think that Milk deserves the Oscar because, in fact, it was the best out of all of these films by far.
Slumdog will probably win because people loved it. I, however, did not love it. I think the beginning was decent (the music to me was unbearable, but the story and acting of the children was good). Even the story being told during a game of Millionaire was interesting to me. The ending, though, was AWFUL. It was very cheesy and cliche. Frost/Nixon would be my second choice and the rest were not good.
How can Sean Penn not win this? I know, I'm raving about Milk, but it was amazing. It made me cry in the theater! I never cry at movies, especially not in public!
Everyone keeps saying this is between Penn and Rourke. My thoughts were that Rourke (who by the way was the only actor in The Wrestler whose acting was better than "oh-my-god-I-want-to-shoot-myself-this-is-so-bad". And to me, the character wasn't a far jump from what he is in real life. It's not acting....it's living. I am not saying he wasn't good....he was decent, but Penn deserves it a lot more.
Sorry, didn't see any of these films! (I do want to see Doubt though). I do have to say that if Kate Winslet wins, I am going to be sad because everyone I know who has seen it says she is awful. On the radio, there reasons that they want her to win tend to be "she's been nominated so many times, she took a part in a Nazi war film, and she's nude for a lot of the film". Those are terrible reasons to win an Oscar! Are Oscars not meant for the "best of the year"?
Best Supporting Actor
I think Heath Ledger should and will win this category. Best Joker ever. Josh Brolin is a close second.
Best Supporting Actress
Alright, I didn't see a couple of these movies. I think Taraji P. Henson did do a good job in Benjamin Button, so if she wins, that would be fine with me.
If Marisa Tomei wins, I am going to be deeply disturbed by the Oscars this year. She has no acting ability whatsoever. So she was a nude stripper during every scene she was in of this film...that is talent? I don't agree.
Obviously I am choosing Wall-e because it is one of the better films ever made.
This past year was a pretty terrible year for movies in my opinion. Hoping for better movies this year!